Technology Forecasting for strategic decision making - An Introduction

By Prof. Bala Ramadurai | IIT Madras

Learners enrolled: 1021 | Exam registration: 553

About the course:
How to strengthen strategic decision-making with reliable technological forecasts? Numerous quantitative methods are available for predicting future demands and short-term changes. These methods, however, have limited application for such a question. The need is to combine the advantages of qualitative methods and explorative qualitative methods for long-range technological forecasting. A structured methodology can be applied for this purpose. In this course, you will learn a combination of the technique “Extrapolation with S-curves” and a network of problems using practical case studies.

INTENDED AUDIENCE : Post-Graduate

PREREQUISITES : Data Management Skills

This course does not have any specific prerequisites.

However, we do recommend that students consider taking courses such as "Data Driven Decision Making", "Data Extraction and Analysis in a Company", or other courses that cover time-series data and tech evolution along with data treatment, either before or after this course.

INDUSTRIES SUPPORT : Many industries and institutes recognize the need for technology forecasting, e.g. - manufacturing, ICT

Summary

Course Status :	Ongoing
Course Type :	Elective
Language for course content :	English
Duration :	4 weeks
Category :	Management Studies
Credit Points :	1
Level :	Postgraduate
Start Date :	19 Jan 2026
End Date :	13 Feb 2026
Enrollment Ends :	02 Feb 2026
Exam Registration Ends :	16 Feb 2026
Exam Date :	28 Mar 2026 IST
NCrF Level	4.5 — 8.0

Note: This exam date is subject to change based on seat availability. You can check final exam date on your hall ticket.

Page Visits

Course layout

Week 1: Introduction to Technology Forecasting (TF)

Week 2: Case Studies and Structure of the Course - introduce models (using process)
Week 3: Setup of a TF Project (introduce process - using models from Week 2)
Week 4: Qualitative Forecast, Quantitative Forecast and Wrap Up

Books and references

Meyer, P. S., Yung, J. W., & Ausubel, J. H. (1999). A Primer on Logistic Growth and Substitution: The Mathematics of the Loglet Lab Software. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 61(3), 247–271.
Modis, T. (2013). Natural Laws in the Service of the Decision Maker: How to Use Science-Based Methodologies to See More Clearly further into the Future. Growth Dynamics.
FORMAT Project. 2020. “Technology Forecasting Handbook, FORMAT - Forecasting and Roadmapping for Manufacturing Technologies.” https://handbook.format-project.eu/
Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice (2nd ed.). OTexts. https://otexts.com/fpp2/
Modis, T. (2024). The Preponderance of Electric Vehicles and the Availability of “Green” Electricity. In: Devezas, T., Leitão, J., Sarygulov, A., LePoire, D.J., Khusainov, B. (eds) Global Energy Transition and Sustainable Development Challenges, Vol. 2. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-67587-4_4 Pre-print copy

Instructor bio

Prof. Bala Ramadurai

IIT Madras

Dr. Bala Ramadurai is an entrepreneur, professor, author, innovation coach, and podcaster—who blends academic depth with hands-on industry experience. As the CEO and Co-founder of Spirelia, he leads the development of AI-powered tools that simplify and accelerate innovation, helping companies bridge the gap between ideas, IP, and implementation.

With over 15 years of global experience, Dr. Ramadurai has worked with top-tier organizations such as GE, Mercedes-Benz, Samsung, and Mindtree, bringing transformative approaches to innovation and intrapreneurship. He holds a PhD from Arizona State University and a B.Tech from IIT Madras, and has taught over 100,000 students through institutions like IIT Madras, NPTEL, Universidad Panamericana (Mexico), and SIBM Pune.

Dr. Bala is the author of Karmic Design Thinking, co-author of a handbook on technology forecasting, and holds multiple patents from his time at GE. He’s also a co-host of four podcasts. Outside work, he is a birder, traveller, and amateur astronomer.

Course certificate

The course is free to enroll and learn from. But if you want a certificate, you have to register and write the proctored exam conducted by us in person at any of the designated exam centres.

The exam is optional for a fee of Rs 1000/- (Rupees one thousand only).

Date and Time of Exams: : March 28, 2026 Morning session 9am to 12 noon; Afternoon Session 2pm to 5pm.

Registration url: Announcements will be made when the registration form is open for registrations.

The online registration form has to be filled and the certification exam fee needs to be paid. More details will be made available when the exam registration form is published. If there are any changes, it will be mentioned then.

Please check the form for more details on the cities where the exams will be held, the conditions you agree to when you fill the form etc.

CRITERIA TO GET A CERTIFICATE

Average assignment score = 25% of average of best 3 assignments out of the total 4 assignments given in the course.
Exam score = 75% of the proctored certification exam score out of 100

Final score = Average assignment score + Exam score

Please note that assignments encompass all types (including quizzes, programming tasks, and essay submissions) available in the specific week.

YOU WILL BE ELIGIBLE FOR A CERTIFICATE ONLY IF AVERAGE ASSIGNMENT SCORE >=10/25 AND EXAM SCORE >= 30/75. If one of the 2 criteria is not met, you will not get the certificate even if the Final score >= 40/100.

Certificate will have your name, photograph and the score in the final exam with the breakup.It will have the logos of NPTEL and IIT Madras .It will be e-verifiable at nptel.ac.in/noc.

Only the e-certificate will be made available. Hard copies will not be dispatched.

Once again, thanks for your interest in our online courses and certification. Happy learning.

- NPTEL team