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Time Series Modelling and Forecasting with Applications in R

By Prof. Sudeep Bapat   |   IIT Bombay
Learners enrolled: 1648   |  Exam registration: 228
ABOUT THE COURSE:
Time series applications are found abundantly across different fields of research such as business, finance, climatology, environmental sciences among many others. There is a need of the hour to suitably model such datasets and try to get meaningful forecasts. A few examples in this regard are predicting the stock price of a stock, forecasting the monthly rainfall or temperature, signal processing etc. In this course we shall first introduce time series through several relevant examples, build upon the basic understanding of linear time series modelling and forecasting, while also delving deep into spectral analysis, multivariate time series, volatility modelling, and machine learning in time series. Hands-on applications and exercises will also be discussed using the R software.

INTENDED AUDIENCE: Anyone pursuing BSc, MSc, MBA, MTech or PhD, with appreciation for statistics, analytics, finance etc.

PREREQUISITES: Basic knowledge about statistical inference and regression

INDUSTRY SUPPORT: Financial institutions, banks, insurance groups, climatologists, economists, sales managers and other related sectors dealing with time-based observations. Eg. Commercial banks such as SBI, HDFC, ICICI etc., insurance groups such as ICICI Pru etc.,
Summary
Course Status : Ongoing
Course Type : Elective
Language for course content : English
Duration : 12 weeks
Category :
  • Finance
Credit Points : 3
Level : Undergraduate/Postgraduate
Start Date : 20 Jan 2025
End Date : 11 Apr 2025
Enrollment Ends : 03 Feb 2025
Exam Registration Ends : 28 Feb 2025
Exam Date : 27 Apr 2025 IST

Note: This exam date is subject to change based on seat availability. You can check final exam date on your hall ticket.


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Course layout

Week 1: Introduction to time series with examples, stationarity, non-stationarity and related concepts
Week 2: Time series decomposition and introduction to basic time series models such as Random walk, White noise, AR, MA, ARMA etc. Introducing ACF and PACF plots and model identification
Week 3: Tests for stationarity, expanding non-stationarity and related models such as ARIMA, SARIMA etc. Introduction to differencing and backshift operators
Week 4: Model identification, estimation and diagnostic checking using tests such as Augmented Dickey Fuller, Ljung and Box, etc.
Week 5: Time series forecasting methods such as ARIMA, SMA smoothing, EMA smoothing, Holt Winter’s technique etc. Comparing forecasts using different metrics
Week 6: Introducing fractionally integrated processes such as ARFIMA, long memory property of ARFIMA processes, estimation of parameters etc.
Week 7: Multivariate time series processes such as VAR, VARMA, moments, cross moments and stationarity, Wald representation
Week 8: Error correction models, cointegration for multivariate time series, causality analysis and causality tests, direct Granger procedure, Haugh-Pierce test, Hsiao procedure
Week 9: Fourier transformation, processes in frequency domain, spectral representation of time series, spectral density
Week 10: Introduction to stochastic volatility models such as ARCH, GARCH and their extensions.
Week 11: Introduction to non-linear time series models such as Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR), Markov switching models etc.
Week 12: Introduction to machine learning models for time series. Anomaly detection, LSTM, Neural networks in time series

Books and references

  1. R. Shumway, D. Stoffer, Time Series Analysis and its Applications, 4th Edition, Springer.
  2. P. J. Brockwell, R. A. Davis, Introduction to Time Series Forecasting, 2nd Edition, Springer.
  3. R. S. Tsay, Analysis of Financial Time Series, Wiley.

Instructor bio

Prof. Sudeep Bapat

IIT Bombay
Prof. Sudeep R. Bapat is an Assistant professor at the Shailesh J. Mehta School of Management, IIT Bombay. Prior to this, he has worked as a visiting faculty at the University of California Santa Barbara, USA and as an Assistant professor at IIM Indore. He did his Masters in statistics from IIT Bombay in 2012, and PhD from the University of Connecticut, USA, in 2017. He has published over 40 original research articles in reputed journals in the field, and has chaired, organized sessions and given talks in several national and international and conferences. His areas of interest include statistical learning, time series, sequential sampling methodologies, change point detection, censoring among a few others

Course certificate

The course is free to enroll and learn from. But if you want a certificate, you have to register and write the proctored exam conducted by us in person at any of the designated exam centres.
The exam is optional for a fee of Rs 1000/- (Rupees one thousand only).
Date and Time of Exams: April 27, 2025 Morning session 9am to 12 noon; Afternoon Session 2pm to 5pm.
Registration url: Announcements will be made when the registration form is open for registrations.
The online registration form has to be filled and the certification exam fee needs to be paid. More details will be made available when the exam registration form is published. If there are any changes, it will be mentioned then.
Please check the form for more details on the cities where the exams will be held, the conditions you agree to when you fill the form etc.

CRITERIA TO GET A CERTIFICATE

Average assignment score = 25% of average of best 8 assignments out of the total 12 assignments given in the course.
Exam score = 75% of the proctored certification exam score out of 100

Final score = Average assignment score + Exam score

Please note that assignments encompass all types (including quizzes, programming tasks, and essay submissions) available in the specific week.

YOU WILL BE ELIGIBLE FOR A CERTIFICATE ONLY IF AVERAGE ASSIGNMENT SCORE >=10/25 AND EXAM SCORE >= 30/75. If one of the 2 criteria is not met, you will not get the certificate even if the Final score >= 40/100.

Certificate will have your name, photograph and the score in the final exam with the breakup.It will have the logos of NPTEL and IIT Bombay .It will be e-verifiable at nptel.ac.in/noc.

Only the e-certificate will be made available. Hard copies will not be dispatched.

Once again, thanks for your interest in our online courses and certification. Happy learning.

- NPTEL team


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