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Risk-Based Engineering

By Prof. Prabhakar V Varde   |   Homi Bhabha National Institute(HBNI)
Learners enrolled: 246   |  Exam registration: 26
ABOUT THE COURSE:

Considerations of risk reduction to minimum and acceptable level is integral to design, operations and regulation of complex engineering systems. Traditionally, risk and reliability aspects were addressed employing qualitative and experienced-based approaches that, at times, tends to be arbitrary as they were not based on quantitative metrics of risk and reliability. 

This course on Risk-based engineering presents an integrated model where the deterministic and probabilistic approaches compliment and supplement each other towards providing a more holistic framework for safety assessment and management for complex engineering systems. Further, this framework extends the science of probabilistic risk assessment and reliability engineering to include the state-of-the-art in physics-of-failure, prognostics & health management, human reliability and uncertainty prediction to make this approach more rational based. This model is expected to address the requirement of real-time advanced engineering system, more effectively. 

This course is based on a book entitled ‘Risk-based Engineering’ co-authored by Prabhakar V Varde and Michael Pecht, published by Springer in 2018. The main objective was to extend the current state-of-the art in risk-informed approach to risk-based engineering. Risk-based engineering is an applied subject that has been developed based on, over 20 years of experience in the area of risk and reliability and its applications to complex engineering systems. Risk-based engineering is an interdisciplinary subject and the lectures provides concepts, fundamentals, techniques, methods, and complex modelling requirements such that, risk and reliability targets can be achieved for engineering systems. 


INTENDED AUDIENCE: Ph. D. students and researchers in engineering sciences

Disclaimer

This course on Risk-based Engineering offered through the NPTEL platform, where the objective is to share the experience and expertise of the instructor with scholars, working professionals and students on the subject matter. The academics and views expressed in this course are experience and opinion of the instructor and not the position, view of any organization he was / is associated with.

The lectures have been prepared mainly based on his book on Risk-based Engineering, published by Springer in 2018.  Even though the instructor’s experience in his professional areas forms part of these lectures, conscious efforts have been taken not to present any data and information of confidential nature, during this course. In fact, academic activities including teaching on topics like reliability, reliability and safety were some of the points identified as his duties as Raja Ramanna Chair / Fellow, DAE, in Homi Bhabha National Institute, activities. Reasonable efforts have been made to use the authentic, reliable and state of the art knowledge in the subject area, however, the author does not take the responsibility of validity and applicability or correctness of the material or consequences of their use.

Risk-based engineering is an evolving technology, and a good amount of data and information has been used from open sources in the interest of the subject to the extent possible giving its source as and when required. Despite of this, if any copyright or acknowledgment issues are found please do write to us such that this can be addressed in future academic version.

PREREQUISITES: B.Tech. in Engineering Sciences

INDUSTRY SUPPORT: Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) - that is at the core of risk-based engineering) for complex engineering systems like nuclear plants, process and chemical industry, Space and aviation systems forms an integral part of design and operations safety evaluation. Risk-based engineering has been design as an integrated approach to these applications.
Summary
Course Status : Completed
Course Type : Elective
Language for course content : English
Duration : 12 weeks
Category :
  • Multidisciplinary
Credit Points : 3
Level : Postgraduate
Start Date : 22 Jul 2024
End Date : 11 Oct 2024
Enrollment Ends : 05 Aug 2024
Exam Registration Ends : 16 Aug 2024
Exam Date : 27 Oct 2024 IST

Note: This exam date is subject to change based on seat availability. You can check final exam date on your hall ticket.


Page Visits



Course layout

Week-1
Introduction & Risk characterization: Historical Perspective on Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Risk-based applications, Integrated Risk-based Engineering Approach, Factor of safety and uncertainty, Basic Framework for Integrated Risk-Based Engineering. 
Risk Characterization Policy and Principles, Background and Definition of “Risk”, Major Elements of Risk Characterization, Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) Analysis, Risk Metrics.        
                                
Week-2         
Probabilistic approach to risk and reliability: How to interpretation of Bathtub Curve, Probability Theory: Main Concepts, Reliability (Time-based, Stress/Strength, Cycle based) Derivation of Reliability Function from the First Principle, Reliability Characteristics, Why Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Reliability & Availability, Probability Distribution Functions, Point Estimate, Method of Moment, Maximum Likelihood Estimate, Bayesian Estimator, Confidence Interval Estimation, Goodness-of-Fit Tests.       

Week-3        
Life Prediction: Introduction to life prediction scope and objective; Life Prediction and Assessment approaches, Accelerated screening and life testing, probabilistic fracture mechanics        

Week-4        
Systems Reliability Modelling and Analysis-A: Reliability Block Diagram, Fault Tree, Event Tree Analysis, Series, Parallel, Standby and complex configuration modelling, Markov Modelling.        

Week-5        
Systems Reliability Modelling and Analysis-B: Dynamic Fault Tree and Dynamic Event Tree, Bayesian updating. Confidence interval analysis, Importance and Sensitivity Analysis, Availability and Maintainability Analysis, Data Modelling and Analysis,        

Week-6        
Probabilistic Risk Assessment - A: Definition, Level 1, 2 and 3 PRA, Preliminary Hazard Analysis, Initiating Event Selection, Accident Sequence Modelling, System modelling, Data collection, analysis and management requirements, Quantification, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis, Evaluation of risk statement for the plant / system. Special Features of PRA: Common Cause Failure, Human Reliability, Risk Ranking of System Structure of Components,         

Week-7        
Probabilistic Risk Assessment – B: Introduction to Low-power and shutdown PRA, Flood and Fire PRA, External Event PRA – An Introduction to PRA applications in design, operation and regulation as part of risk-informed strategy.        

Week-8        
Human Reliability Analysis: A review of the current HR techniques and methods, limitation and advantages of each. Role of various stress inducing factors, role of cognition, consciousness and conscience in HR. Human Reliability requirements in PRA, Estimation of Human Reliability for normal and emergency conditions. Role of Plant simulator in human reliability evaluation.        

Week-9       
Uncertainty Analysis: Conventional approaches to capture uncertainty, sources and uncertainty, Epistemic and Aleatory uncertainty, Uncertainty characterization in reliability and risk analysis. Monte – Carlo Approach for uncertainty. Assessment of Confidence bounds.         

Week-10        
Physics-of-failure approach: Power and Limitation of PoF based approach to risk and reliability, role of operational and environmental stresses, Framework for PoF, Failure Mode Mechanism and Effect, Life testing for simulation the load. Role of intelligent approach to feature extraction, Canaries, 
  
Week-11        
Prognostics and health management: Definitions, traditional approach to life / reliability prediction, Fundamental concepts in prognostics and risk management, role of physics of failure in PHM, Data driven, Physics-of-Failure and Fusion approach to PHM. Degradation modelling, Accelerated Life testing, PHM Metrics.  PHM standards.        

Week-12        
Applications / Case Studies on Risk-based Engineering : Risk-based design, Risk-based Inservice Inspection, PRA based Operator Support Systems, Risk-based Maintenance Management, Safety System Test Interval optimization, Risk-informed decision making in regulatory framework, Risk-monitor

Books and references

  1. Risk-based Engineering – An integrated approach to Complex Systems – Special reference to nuclear plants, Varde P.V. and Pecht M, Springer, 2018
  2. What Every Engineer Should Know About Risk and Reliability Analysis, M. Moderras,CRC Press, 1993.
  3. Risk-Based Bridge Engineering, (Editor) Khalead M, CRC, Press, Reliability and Risk Assessment in Engineering, (Editor) Gupta V.K., Varde P.V., Kankar P.K., Joshi N.S., Springer, 2018.
  4. Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis – A Practical Guide, Modarres M., Kaminskiy M., Krivtsov V., CRC Press, 2010.
  5. Prognostics and Health Management of Electronics, Pecht M.G., Wiley, 2008.
  6. Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems, Billington R., Allan R.N., Springer, 1996
  7. Risk and Safety Analysis of Nuclear Systems, Lee, J.C., McCormick N.J., Wiley, 2011.
  8. Intelligent Fault Diagnosis and Prognosis for Engineering Systems, Vachtsevanos G.,Lewis F.L., Hess A., Wu B., Wiley, 2006.
  9. Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Mark G. Stewart & Robert E. Melchers, Chapman & Hall,1997
  10. Risk-based Management – Reliability Centred Maintenance, Jones Richard B.
  11. Human Reliability And Safety Analysis Data Handbook, Gertman, David I, Wiley-Interscience.
  12. Understanding Uncertainty, Lindley D.V., Wiley-Interscience, 2006.
  13. Risk-conscious operations management, Varde P.V. Springer (Advanced stages of publication by August 2022.

Instructor bio

Prof. Prabhakar V Varde

Homi Bhabha National Institute(HBNI)
Prof. Prabhakar V. Varde: A Senior Professor at Homi Bhabha National Institute. He is a Raja Ramanna Chair and Former Outstanding Scientist and Associate Director, Reactor Group at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Mumbai. He also served as Hon. Professor of Practice at IIT Madras, for two terms during 2020 – 2022.  He was awarded postdoctoral fellowship by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute during 2002 and 2003 in the area of digital system reliability and human factor development.  He has also earned the distinction of working as a Visiting Professor for four terms during 2009 – 2017, at Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE), University of Maryland, MD, USA.
 
He has been actively involved in the area of reliability and probabilistic risk assessment for over 25 years. He has developed PRA model for the nuclear plants at BARC and also worked a Vice Chairman of the AERB committee for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSs) for DAE facilities for over 15 years. He took classes for Reliability Engineering for four terms at BARC Training School and University of Maryland, College Park, USA. He has set up labs at BARC, viz, Nuclear Reactor Simulator, Life Cycle Reliability Engineering Lab, Prognostics and Health Management Lab and Accelerated Life Testing lab, to support for advanced research in the area of risk and reliability engineering. He is consultant and expert to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna and OECDs NEA-WGRISK, Paris in the area of Probabilistic Risk Assessment.  

He is the lead founder of Society for Reliability and Safety (SRESA) in India and the lead Chief-Editor for SRESA’s Int. Journal Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering. He organized five International Conferences (ICRESH) and 5 national conferences (NCRS) over 20 years. 

Based on his research he has over 263 publications at national and international level that includes peer reviewed journal. This also includes 20 authored / co-authored, edited books and conference proceedings and technical volumes. He has citation index is at 1464, H-Index is 14, I-Index-16. He has been a Ph.D. and M. Tech Guide and member of Doctoral committee at HBNI. He has received many awards and recognition. In recent times i.e. 2017 and 2018 he received two DAE Group Achievements awards. He was the team leader for the Simulator Development Team. He was also a team member and took the responsibility as Associated Director, Reactor Group for commissioning and Criticality for the BARC’s prestigious Upgraded Apsara Reactor Project at BARC. 
He has been a Ph.D. and M. Tech. guide and Ph.D. examiner at IIT Bombay, IIT Madras, IIT Kharagpur, IIIT-DMG, Jabalpur, Delhi University and in many other national institutions and universities. 
Presently he is also working as President, SRESA for spreading risk and reliability awareness not only in academic circles but engineering students and developing means a method to develop tools and to support national programs. One of these initiatives is development of engineering codes and standards in the area of Safety and Reliability in India.

Course certificate

The course is free to enroll and learn from. But if you want a certificate, you have to register and write the proctored exam conducted by us in person at any of the designated exam centres.
The exam is optional for a fee of Rs 1000/- (Rupees one thousand only).
Date and Time of Exams: 
27 October 2024 Morning session 9am to 12 noon; Afternoon Session 2pm to 5pm.
Registration url: Announcements will be made when the registration form is open for registrations.
The online registration form has to be filled and the certification exam fee needs to be paid. More details will be made available when the exam registration form is published. If there are any changes, it will be mentioned then.
Please check the form for more details on the cities where the exams will be held, the conditions you agree to when you fill the form etc.

CRITERIA TO GET A CERTIFICATE

Average assignment score = 25% of average of best 8 assignments out of the total 12 assignments given in the course.
Exam score = 75% of the proctored certification exam score out of 100

Final score = Average assignment score + Exam score

YOU WILL BE ELIGIBLE FOR A CERTIFICATE ONLY IF AVERAGE ASSIGNMENT SCORE >=10/25 AND EXAM SCORE >= 30/75. If one of the 2 criteria is not met, you will not get the certificate even if the Final score >= 40/100.

Certificate will have your name, photograph and the score in the final exam with the breakup.It will have the logos of NPTEL and IIT Bombay .It will be e-verifiable at nptel.ac.in/noc.

Only the e-certificate will be made available. Hard copies will not be dispatched.

Once again, thanks for your interest in our online courses and certification. Happy learning.

- NPTEL team


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